Survey of micro, small and medium enterprises experience of urban flooding, water supply disruption and hydroelectric load shedding during the 2015-2016 El Niño

Conway, Declan and Gannon, Kate Elizabeth and Siderius, Christian and Pardoe, Joanna and Batisani, Nnyaladzi and Ndiyoi, Mukelabai and Olago, Daniel and Opere, Alfred and Odada, Eric (2019). Survey of micro, small and medium enterprises experience of urban flooding, water supply disruption and hydroelectric load shedding during the 2015-2016 El Niño. [Data Collection]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Service. 10.5255/UKDA-SN-853445

This research investigated the impacts of and responses to extreme drought (Botswana and Zambia) and floods (Kenya) associated with the 2015-16 El Niño (EN) and subsequent rainy season. The aim of the research was to examine micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) experience of: water supply disruption in Botswana's capital Gaborone; flooding in Kenya’s capital Nairobi; and disruption in Zambia's capital Lusaka to electricity supply, due to reduced hydropower production. In this research we adopted a mixed methods research design, conducted in two phases: 1) Firstly, we examine the hydrological response and impact pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. To do this we present an analysis of the impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia, using in situ and remotely sensed time series of precipitation, river flow, and lake levels complemented by qualitative insights from interviews with key organizations in each country about awareness, impacts, and responses. This phase of the research is written up in Siderius et al., (2018). Results show that drought conditions prevailed in large parts of southern Africa, reducing runoff and contributing to unusually low lake levels in Botswana and Zambia. Key informants characterized this El Niño through record high temperatures and water supply disruption in Botswana and through hydroelectric load shedding in Zambia. Warnings of flood risk in Kenya were pronounced, but the El Niño teleconnection did not materialize as expected in 2015/2016. Extreme precipitation was limited and caused localized impacts. The hydrological impacts in southern Africa were severe and complex, strongly exacerbated by dry antecedent conditions, recent changes in exposure and sensitivity and management decisions. 2) Secondly, we contribute to a sparse literature on firm-level adaptation among micro, small and medium enterprise (MSMEs) in sub-Saharan Africa, through a near-real time assessment of MSME experience of hydrological disruption associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño in the capital regions of Botswana, Zambia and Kenya. We do this through three case studies which consider hydroelectric load shedding (Lusaka), water supply disruption (Gaborone) and flooding (Nairobi). And we consider MSME experience of this disruption in sectors making substantial contributions to livelihoods and national GDP. This focus allows us to profile impact pathways of hydrological disruption associated with a major El Niño event. But it also offers a near-real time snapshot of firm-level experience of a range of climate-related forms of hydrological and resource disruption, as well as of business adaptation behaviour during climate extremes in SSA. This research is written up in Gannon et al., (2018). Alongside complex and indirect impact pathways that influence total loss and damage, results show varying vulnerability to disruption. Nevertheless, directly after the El Niño event, MSMEs reported water supply disruption, power outages and flooding to be the leading challenge within the business environment in Botswana, Zambia and Kenya respectively. The paper calls for deeper understanding of vulnerabilities in existing water, energy and urban infrastructure – in the context of increasing urbanisation and a potentially broader range of climate variability across SSA and argues that this needs to be coupled with public provision of wider enabling conditions – including access to finance – that support private sector adaptation to extreme climate events and associated resource disruption. This paper also identifies clear opportunities to improve climate information services for MSMEs.

Data description (abstract)

Dataset of 195 surveys with micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in sub-Saharan Africa that explore their their experiences of urban flooding (Nairobi, Kenya, n=60), water supply disruption (Gaborone, Botswana, n=57) and disruption to electricity supplies from hydroelectric load shedding (Lusaka, Zambia, n=78) during the 2015/2016 El Niño. The surveys were conducted in August 2016 in Lusaka, in September 2016 in Nairobi, and in November 2016 in Gaborone.

Downloads

Altmetric