Demographic characteristics and projections of ethnic minority and religious groups

Dubuc, Sylvie (2018). Demographic characteristics and projections of ethnic minority and religious groups. [Data Collection]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive. 10.5255/UKDA-SN-852306

This project aims to analyse ethnic and religious demographic diversity, to investigate the potential for convergence of trends over time and its impact upon future population size, age-structure and the ethnic and religious composition of the UK population.

Existing statistical sources (especially the 2001 Census, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Longitudinal Survey) will be used to produce time-series of the demographic characteristics of the ethnic minority populations and religious groups up to 2006. In the absence of vital statistics by ethnic groups, the Own Child method applied to LFS and census data will be used to derive fertility estimates of ethnic and religious groups.

The results will serve population projections to mid-century and beyond of the main ethnic minority populations, including mixed populations, and using cohort-component methods. Migration rates will be based on ONS International Migration Statistics, LFS and census data and projected on various assumptions.

Furthermore, estimates of fertility rates and other demographic information for the major religious (and non-religious) groups will be produced with a view to making preliminary projections of their future size. The potential convergence of the demographic characteristics of ethnic and religious groups will be analysed, including mixed unions as an indicator for integration.

Data description (abstract)

Time-series dataset of the demographic characteristics of the UK ethnic minority populations and religious groups up to 2006, to study ethnic and religious demographic diversity and its impact upon future population size, age-structure and the ethnic and religious composition of the UK population. This dataset is compiled from various existing data sources: 2001 Census, Labour Force Survey (LFS) and International Passenger Survey (IPS) data. In the absence of vital statistics by ethnic groups, indirect methods were used to estimate vital rates, including the ‘Own Child’ method applied to LFS household data to derive fertility estimates of ethnic and religious groups. Building on previous work, fertility rates of ethnic groups were produced up to 2006, distinguishing between UK-born and foreign-born populations. Migration rates were based on ONS International Migration Statistics (using IPS data), LFS and census data and projected on various assumptions. The results served population projections to mid-century and beyond of the main ethnic minority populations, including mixed populations, and using cohort-component methods. Furthermore, estimates of fertility rates for the major religious (and non-religious) groups were produced.

Datasets include: (1) Calculated fertility estimates for all women aged 15 to 49 in the UK, by 5 years age group, by ethnic group, religion and place of birth (UK/non-UK), based on LFS data; (2) Data on mixed children by ethnic group of the mother; (3) Data on country of birth by ethnic group (all populations); (4)
Data on immigration flow by country of origin.

Data creators: